Orioles vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
On Wednesday, Could 5, John Means achieved one thing that no different Baltimore Orioles pitcher had carried out since 1991: Throwing a no-hitter.
Means went the gap in a 6-0 street win vs. Seattle, holding the Mariners and not using a single hit and placing out 12 batters on 113 whole pitches. If it wasn’t for a dropped third strike within the third inning, he would have had an ideal recreation.
His latest no-hitter punctuates an exceptional begin to his 2021 season. Means boasts a sterling 4-0 file and 1.37 ERA in 46 innings over seven appearances. His subsequent problem? Making an attempt to close down a strong Mets lineup.
New York has seemingly discovered its groove after profitable 5 straight video games and sweeping the Diamondbacks. That good run of play has vaulted the Mets into first place within the NL East. New York holds a full-game division lead over the Philadelphia Phillies.
The red-hot Mets ship beginning pitcher Marcus Stroman to the mound in hopes that he can prolong the group’s profitable streak to 6 video games.
The Orioles have actually struggled on the plate, placing up a .297 wOBA and 89 wRC+, each of which rank within the backside 5 amongst MLB groups. Baltimore has notably struggled to hit right-handed pitching. The Orioles lineup studies a dreadful .207 batting common and has scored the fewest whole runs in MLB vs. right-handers.
Baltimore actually doesn’t have an excellent matchup towards New York beginning pitcher Marcus Stroman. First, the Orioles lose the advantage of a DH by advantage of their interleague matchup in a Nationwide League stadium. Second, Baltimore solely has three gamers within the lineup that hit sinkers nicely. That’s disconcerting towards Stroman, whose main pitch is a sinker.
New York Mets
Altogether, the Mets have gotten off to a gradual begin to the 2021 season, placing up a .304 wOBA and 96 wRC+. Nonetheless, New York has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .335 wOBA and 118 wRC+.
New York attracts an advantageous matchup towards John Means on Tuesday. The one pitch New York is crushing proper now’s the fastball. Actually, the Mets have already got 10.3 weighted fastball runs this yr.
Nonetheless, when New York is pressured to hit off-speed pitches, it most prefers to tee off on changeups.
Can you are taking a wild guess which two pitches John Means throws over 80% of the time? That’s proper: Fastballs and changeups.
Beginning Pitching Matchup
John Means vs. Marcus Stroman
2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (by way of Fangraphs)
Orioles Beginning Pitcher
John Means, LHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (by way of Baseball Savant)
I don’t count on John Means to repeat his no-hit efficiency from final Wednesday. Nonetheless, I do suppose that Means’ early-season success is sustainable.
Means has drastically improved his changeup, which is now his put-away pitch. Final season, opponents tagged Means’ changeup for a .349 wOBA. He solely tallied 4 whole strikeouts on the pitch for a put-away share of 6.7%.
This season, he’s held opponents to a .102 common and just one extra-base hit on his changeup. Not solely that, however Means has already struck out 22 batters on changeups for a put-away share of 29.7%.
Nonetheless, Means should be on level together with his fastball-changeup mixture tonight. These are the 2 pitches that the Mets have had probably the most success towards this yr; furthermore, New York is crushing left-handed pitching.
Mets Beginning Pitcher
Marcus Stroman, RHP
2019 Pitch Arsenal (by way of Baseball Savant)
Stroman has been stable via his first seven begins, posting a 2.10 ERA and three.18 xFIP, each of that are career-best numbers. He has been profitable together with his total arsenal, holding opponents beneath a .270 wOBA on his major three pitches: Sinker, slider, and cutter.
The principle cause Stroman is so efficient is that he forces a ton of floor balls. Earlier than becoming a member of the Mets, Stroman put collectively 4 straight seasons with a ground-ball price above 60%. Instigating a ground-ball price that top is obvious affirmation that his sinker/cutter/slider mixture persistently stays down within the zone.
Stroman has made some modifications to his arsenal this season. He eradicated his curveball and changeup, neither of which he threw fairly often anyway. He additionally added a reasonably filthy split-finger:
Stroman attracts a improbable matchup towards Baltimore. The Orioles lineup has desperately struggled versus right-handed pitching.
The Orioles bullpen has been surprisingly adept, posting a 3.43 ERA. Nonetheless, Baltimore’s relievers are due for some detrimental regression, as a result of their inflated mixed xFIP of 4.49 — over a full run increased than their ERA.
New York’s aid pitchers have additionally improved markedly year-over-year. The Mets bullpen has posted a 3.04 ERA and three.59 xFIP and is basically accountable for retaining the group afloat throughout its hitting hunch on the finish of April/starting of Could.
The Mets can have the benefit within the later innings throughout this sequence.
Regardless that John Means simply threw a no-hitter and has appeared untouchable this season, I feel the Mets have an excellent matchup towards him. On the flip facet, Marcus Stroman and the Mets bullpen ought to have the ability to shut down a struggling Orioles offense.
Since I’ve the Mets projected at -186, I feel there may be some worth on them at -148 (DraftKings).
Choose: Mets -148